This Primary Race Could Determine Who Dominates the Republican Party

Texas' Republican Senate primary is heating up with a tight race between Cornyn and Paxton.

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Texas’ Republican Senate primary battle is shaping up to become one of the most brutal races in the upcoming midterm elections.
Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is locked in a near-tie with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton just weeks before early voting is set to start.

The latest Emerson/College/Nexstar poll shows Paxton with 27 percent support and Cornyn at 26 percent. However, 29 percent of Republican primary voters remain undecided, which means this race could go either way.
It’s also worth noting that no candidate is close to the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff election in May, which will likely add even more to the drama surrounding the race.
This primary will probably become a referendum on what kind of Republican Texans want. Cornyn, 72, represents the old-guard establishment, which should make him something of a pariah to many GOP voters. However, he has maintained an overall positive relationship with President Donald Trump. Indeed, he helped to pass Trump’s 2017 tax cuts through Congress. He has voted with Trump 99.3 percent of the time and voted to confirm all three of Trump’s Supreme Court nominees.
However, Cornyn faced criticism from many in the Republican base for championing the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the first major federal gun control legislation in almost three decades. The law was passed in response to the mass shooting at a school in Uvalde, Texas that killed 19 children and two teachers.
The law beefed up background checks for gun buyers under 21 and closed the “boyfriend” loophole for domestic abusers. It also altered the standard the ATF uses when determining whether a person has violated federal law by selling firearms without a license. This change criminalized many like Greg Berry, who traded guns as a hobby.
Still, this may not be enough to fend off the challenge coming from Paxton, who has amassed a level of popularity with the MAGA crowd. His pugilistic relationship with the Biden administration and eagerness to advance Trump’s immigration agenda in his second term have endeared him to the populist wing of the Republican Party.
Paxton has constantly hammered Cornyn over his support for sending more aid to Ukraine, accusing him of defending “other countries’ borders, but not America” and referring to him as an “America Last RINO,” according to Politico.
The attorney general released a 74-page legal opinion on Martin Luther King Day this year declaring that diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs are unconstitutional. He cited a 1999 opinion Cornyn issued when he was the state’s attorney general related to race and college admissions.
Paxton’s campaign even released an AI-generated attack ad showing Cornyn dancing with Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett (TX-30), who is also running for the Senate seat. The ad features quotes from Crockett characterizing Cornyn as her “dance partner” who helped her with passing legislation.
However, Paxton does come with some baggage. The Republican-controlled Texas House impeached him in May 2023 on 20 articles carrying allegations of bribery, abuse of office, and obstruction of justice related to his relationship with campaign donor Nate Paul. The Texas Senate later acquitted Paxton in September of the same year. Paxton derided the move as a “sham impeachment coordinated by the Biden administration.”

The attorney general also faced charges in 2015 over allegations that he defrauded investors in a tech startup. He agreed to pay almost $300,000 in restitution and to perform community service in March 2024, weeks before the trial was set to begin.
Yet, none of this has prevented Paxton’s momentum, which could suggest that many GOP voters aren’t satisfied with their current senator.
Another wrinkle in this story is President Trump’s silence on the race. He has not yet endorsed either candidate even though he has already endorsed 19 out of 22 Senate Republicans up for reelection in 2026.
The San Antonio Current reported that Cornyn told Trump personally, “This race would be over if you decided to endorse.” Trump replied, “I know, I know,” but did not offer his support at that time.
Early voting in the primary begins on February 17 and the elections will be held on March 3. The outcome could be a sign of which GOP faction might dominate the party after November.

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